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Prediction for CME (2016-04-10T11:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2016-04-10T11:00Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/10471/-1
CME Note: CME associated with large filament eruption situated close to N18E29 starting around 10UTC.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2016-04-14T06:50Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 5.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2016-04-14T12:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

:Issued: 2016 Apr 11 1230 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 60411
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 11 Apr 2016, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 11 Apr 2016 until 13 Apr 2016)
SOLAR FLARES  : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 11 Apr 2016  10CM FLUX: 111 / AP: 005
PREDICTIONS FOR 12 Apr 2016  10CM FLUX: 111 / AP: 011
PREDICTIONS FOR 13 Apr 2016  10CM FLUX: 111 / AP: 031
COMMENT: One C flare was released by the Sun in the past 24 hours: a C1.1
flare produced by beta region NOAA AR 2529, peaking at 02:02 UT on April
11. More C flares (probability 70%) are expected in the next 24 hours, with
a slight chance (probability 10%) for an M flare, especially from AR 2529.
A filament eruption centered near 10N25E was observed around 10:13 UT on
April 10 and an associated CME was first observed by LASCO C2 at 11:48 UT.
This CME may deliver a glancing blow on April 14.
Solar wind speed varied between about 335 and 430 km/s in the past 24
hours, while the magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field ranged
between 1 and 10 nT. Over the past 24 hours, geomagnetic conditions have
been quiet to unsettled (K Dourbes between 1 and 3; NOAA Kp between 1 and
3). Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic levels (K Dourbes

Lead Time: 66.33 hour(s)
Difference: -5.17 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Leila Mays (GSFC) on 2016-04-11T12:30Z

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